Calculating your outs in Texas Hold’em

What are the chances? How do you calculate your chances of winning with one card to come?

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In a community card poker game like Texas Hold’em, you’ll occasionally find yourself in a situation where the betting has completed, but not all the cards are dealt. The players’ hole cards are turned over and everyone can see what each person needs to draw on the river to win the pot. So how do you work out the chances for each hand?

The first step is to count how many known cards there are and how many unknown (unseen) cards there are.

Known cards are your own hand, the community cards, plus any other exposed cards revealed for any reason — for instance, if the betting is complete and the cards are “on their backs”
Unknown cards are the rest of the deck, and any folded cards.

Other players’ folded cards are unknown because they were randomly dealt and you haven’t seen them. You might be able to make an educated guess, given how those players were betting.

The number of known cards plus unknown cards is always 52 if you’re playing with a standard deck, while a Royal Hold’em hand calculation will revolve around a 20-card deck.

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The cards in that pool of unknown cards that’ll win the hand for you are your outs.

Let’s look at a common situation:

The above four cards have been revealed. You’re all-in with a 3 of Clubs and 4 of Clubs, and you see that your opponent is currently winning with a 7 of Hearts and 7 of Diamonds.

You can see eight cards. Of the 44 unknown cards, nine are clubs and three others are 2s (you can’t count the 2 of clubs twice, and you already counted it with the clubs), so you have 12 outs to win. Even though many of the cards left don’t improve your opponent’s holding or change the outcome, all the rest are considered to be outs for your opponent because they don’t help your hand.

If you had two higher clubs than your opponent’s pair of 7s, such as the Queen and the 9, then you’d have nine clubs, three non-club Jacks, PLUS the three Queens and three 9s which make a pair for you. That comes to a total of 18 outs, and in a situation where there are only two players, that means it’s an 18 out of 44 chance to win, which is almost 41%

Interestingly, the hand that is currently winning is sometimes not the favorite to win the hand — especially when three or more hands are involved in the race.

For example, on the above board, where three players are all-in with the following holdings:

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A) J of Clubs, 10 of Clubs
B) 9 of Spades, 5 of Spades
C) Ace of Diamonds, 4 of Diamonds

There are 42 unknown cards, regardless of how many players were dealt in and have folded.

A) wins with any one of: nine clubs, two Queens, two Jacks, two 10s, and two 7s, making 17 outs (40.5%).
B) wins with any one of: nine spades, two remaining 9s, and the two remaining 5s that are not clubs, making 13 outs (31%).
C) has the remaining cards that don’t improve an opponent, which is just 12 of them, for 28.6% and the lowest chance to win of the three!

To become a better poker player, you must rely on a concept that involves a bit of mathematics.

The word maths may scare players into thinking that they can never succeed in poker because numbers aren’t their strong point, but if you can add or subtract, you will do just fine.

The skill of counting Poker Outs discussed in this article is a simple, yet crucial concept. Knowing how many outs you have and how to calculate them correctly will be one of the most important steps to becoming a better player.

What are Poker Outs?

An out in poker terms, is a card that, if it is dealt next, can improve your hand. A good example would be when you already have 4 cards of the same suit and need 1 more to complete a Flush. That 1 card needed is called an out. In this situation you would have many outs, as there are many cards of that suit that could be dealt and improve your hand, each one of them would be an “out”.

There are many other instances where outs come into play and will often times be a key factor for the basis of your decisions.

Counting Outs

Counting outs is a very simple process that involves simple addition and subtraction. You first need to determine what your current hand strength is and what cards could help you improve to a hand that would win the pot.

Even if you haven’t yet made a hand, you still have outs to make a better hand. If you hold A-K, your outs with no straight or flush draw would be the remaining Aces and Kings. Any one of these cards will improve your hand.

We use simple maths to calculate our outs. There are 4 of each rank in a 52 card deck, one in each suit. This gives us 4 Aces and 4 Kings for a total of 8 available. However, we subtract the two cards in our hand and that gives 3 outs of each rank. So here we have a total of 6 outs to make a better hand.

So what do I use this Information for?

Knowing how many outs you have will help to make decisions during a hand and can help determine if certain situations will warrant a call or a fold.

In a hand where you are drawing to a flush, you will likely have 9 outs (13 cards in a suit, less the 4 you already have) that will make the best hand. You can then use the number of outs you have to assess the likelihood of you actually making that hand. Once you know this then you can look at how much money you would win in the pot and assess if the risk you are taking is worth it.

Texas Holdem How To Count Outs